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Understanding the sub prime mortgage
market!
In recent weeks, the U.S. sub prime mortgage market has
gained much media attention. Until recently, few of us knew what this meant.
What is a sub prime mortgage?
A sub prime mortgage is a loan that is categorized as
riskier in nature. The borrower would typically not qualify for a mortgage
through regular, traditional channels due to either poor credit or non
verifiable or low(er) income. This market was created for the many, high risk
buyers. Rates for these mortgages were considerably higher than those offered to
the blue chip customers.
Last year, these loans amounted to an astounding 20
percent of the total volume of mortgages written in the United States. This
represented a mind boggling one trillion US dollars.
Many lenders outlook for the real estate market in the
United States was continued growth and appreciation. If the borrower in
subsequent years couldn't meet their financial obligations, the higher prices
would largely insulate or negate losses for the lender. The lenders were
typically offloading these sub prime mortgages to institutions who would package
them as mortgage backed bonds. The high returns offered by these bonds made them
a very attractive vehicle for investment funds. There was an incredible amount
of money flowing into these funds.
This was a profitable business for many - wall street
brokers who packaged and sold the bonds and the debt rating agencies who
received substantial fees for making the bonds appear to be solid investments.
Large investment dollars were pouring in from Canada, Europe and Asia.
Good times wouldn't last forever. The combination of
higher interest rates and lower home values have taken its toll on the sub prime
mortgage market. The number of foreclosures are up 93 percent from 2006. Some
lenders have been forced out of business because of the insurmountable losses.
At the worst possible time, lenders have tightened their lending practices which
make it more difficult for individuals and companies to secure credit. This
restrictive lending style can have an enormous negative impact on economic
growth.
What affect will this have in Canada?
One byproduct is that lenders may tighten
up lending practices globally which would not be immune to the Canadian
marketplace. Secondly, because Canada's prime trading partner may be heading
into a recession, it may have an impact on the Canadian economy. An individuals
net worth in the United States is largely tied to their real estate holdings. As
prices drop, many will be more cautious of consumption patterns. This will have
a detrimental affect on the economy.
Are there similar risks in the sub prime
market in Canada?
The U.S. sub prime market is wreaking havoc. Do the same
risks exist in Canada? There are some key differences between the sub prime
markets in Canada and the United States. The total percentage of the sub prime
market is approximately 5 percent in Canada which is in sharp contrast to the 20
percent sub prime market in the U.S. According to the Canadian Association of
Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP), the mortgage arrears in Canada is at
or near record lows of less than one half of one percent (.5 percent).
In Canada, the approach tends to be a more conservative
one. There is less emphasis on gaining market share for the risky sub prime
mortgage business. In the U.S., clearly the war for the sub prime mortgages, may
have been a reason for some careless and wreckless loan granting. Also, the
lending practice in Canada is not to use option adjustable rate mortgages for
the sub prime borrower. This reduces the risk with any loan.
Adrienne Warren, a Scotiabank senior economist, believes
that the Canadian housing market has been less speculative than the U.S. market.
He further believes real estate investments in Canada have been by in large less
active, overbuilding less prevalent and less high risk lending. A strong job
market and lower interest rates should help sustain the Canadian real estate
market.
Mortgage interest is tax deductible on an Americans
principle residence. This is another significant reason why Americans are
encouraged and motivated to buy a home (sometimes prematurely). The U.S. housing
affordability is at its worst level in two decades. In Canada, affordability is
still very much present as the overall real estate picture is better than the
1989 period when there was a significant spike in prices. Currently, the U.S.
household debt is a staggering 25 percent higher per capita than that of the
Canadian household.
The real estate market in Canada has been going strong
for 9 years. It is difficult to predict when the market will show signs of a
slowdown. I believe given the demand for real estate in our current market, the
low unemployment figures and the availability of affordable housing, the market
will continue to flourish despite the struggles of our southern neighbour.
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